China’s Digital Silk Road Impact on the Gulf Cooperation Council’s Information and Communication Technology Sector Growth Amid Sino American Competition رسالة دكتوراة

Abstract

This study examines the influence of China’s Digital Silk Road (DSR) on the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states within the broader context of Sino–American rivalry. Grounded in offensive realism, it asks how China’s digital engagement in the Gulf operates as a power maximizing strategy, how the United States responds to China’s regional expansion, and how GCC states manage competing pressures while advancing digital transformation. Methodologically, the study integrates qualitative and quantitative approaches and applies several econometric techniques, including OLS regression and fixed-effects regression. Using panel data estimated in STATA with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors, the dependent variable is the natural log of ICT value added, while external technology channels are measured through FDI stock and ICT-goods imports from China and the United States. Results show that both China- and U.S.-linked channels are positively associated with ICT value added in pooled cross-country variation, but within country evidence is more consistent for China: Chinese FDI stock and Chinese ICT imports remain positive and statistically significant in fixed-effects models, whereas U.S. variables are not robust. Negative interaction terms in pooled OLS suggest less-than additive gains when both ecosystems expand simultaneously, consistent with technological fragmentation under rivalry. The post-2013 period is associated with higher ICT performance. The study also finds that GCC states pursue strategic balancing— deepening economic ties with China while preserving U.S. security linkages. It recommends a dual-track digital-sovereignty strategy: diversify suppliers, harmonize cybersecurity and data governance, and require knowledge transfer and local capacity building.