Utilizing Artificial Intelligence in Strategic Planning and Foresight Approaches: A Case Study Future of Development in Palestine under Uncertain Political, Social, and Economic Circumstances رسالة ماجستير

Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify future scenarios of development in Palestine under unstable political, economic, and social conditions. By using foresight techniques to build and prioritize future scenarios and analyze potential and future trends, the study employs artificial intelligence in strategic planning to develop a developmental model that guides efforts and development plans towards beneficial and sustainable directions for the future of Palestine. The significance of this study lies in its being the first in Palestine to operate within an environment of highly unstable indicators, where uncertainty increases significantly day by day. Consequently, the traditional pattern of foresight studies is not present in this study. This study belongs to the field of future studies with a multi-disciplinary approach based on case study methodology. The researcher used an elite opinion poll tool to answer the study’s questions and achieve its objectives. The elite opinion poll was conducted with 32 experts in the fields of politics, economics, sociology, as well as representatives of civil society and governments. Foresight techniques and artificial intelligence were used to analyze the data from the “elite opinion poll. The study utilized various artificial intelligence techniques in several key areas, such as ChatGPT and "AI Futurist by Futures Platform," for data integration and analysis, big data processing, scenario creation, and scenario evaluation. The study concluded with a set of results, the most notable of which is that political factors are the most important in the living reality in the West Bank, followed by economic factors, and then social factors. Regarding the factors most affecting the living reality, the results VI showed that the ‘development plans’ of the Palestinian National Authority, and the Israeli occupation through their control of crossings and clearance funds, were the most influential. The results indicated that the most influential economic factors in future scenarios were the Palestinian National Authority’s ability to manage and fulfill its financial obligations, and the Israeli occupation's control over clearance funds.As for the social factors most affecting the future of Palestinian society, the results showed that ‘the increase in poverty,’ followed by the factor of migration, are the most influential. The results also showed that there is a significant state of political, economic, and social instability, making all proposed options open for shaping the future.